Uncertainty

Historical quantitative models are problematic mainly due to incomplete and biased data. These uncertainties can lead to diverging interpretations of the scarce source material. It is for example no exception that basic macroeconomic estimates (such as total population or GDP) for ancient societies differ twofold or more.

There are however various statistical techniques to incorporate these uncertainties formally into quantitative models. Probabilistic modelling is such a technique, which is already used widely in other social sciences. I work with Myles Lavan and Daniel Jew to advocate for the use of this technique in (ancient) historical models.

Related publications

Danon, Bart. “Senators and senatorial wealth at Pompeii: Reconstructing the local wealth distribution.” In The Uncertain Past, edited by Myles Lavan, Daniel Jew, and Bart Danon, 93–134. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2023.
Danon, Bart, Daniel Jew, and Myles Lavan. “Afterword.” In The Uncertain Past, edited by Myles Lavan, Daniel Jew, and Bart Danon, 297–302. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2023.
Lavan, Myles, Daniel Jew, and Bart Danon, eds. The Uncertain Past: Probability in Ancient History. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2023.
Danon, Bart. “Wijn, winst en waarschijnlijkheid: Het rendement van Columella’s wijngaard.” Tijdschrift voor Mediterrane Archeologie 66 (2022): 18–24.